This last English summer was estimated as the hottest in history. By June, 2,300 people were estimated to have died from heat-related causes across Europe. Floods cause devastation in Pakistan while wildfires once again rage through the Mediterranean.
By Alison Gaughan
The year up to July 2024 was confirmed as the hottest on record with the global temperature at 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels for twelve consecutive months. At 1.5 degrees, scientists agree that the effects of climate change become significantly more serious, which is why it was a key goal of the Paris climate agreement in 2015. This goal is now dead.
Most climate models are now quietly building in the assumption of “overshoot”. This is the implication that we will exceed 1.5 degrees but that some future technology will be able to mitigate the effects, possibly by capturing the CO2. To be clear: there are no large scale, sustained examples of a working carbon capture and storage system.
One of the most important effects of the 1.5 degree rise, which may not be immediately obvious, is the change in sea temperatures. Changes in water temperature affect ocean currents. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which, due to the melting Greenland ice cap, could collapse as soon as 2050. That is important because changes in ocean currents significantly affect the temperature on land.
The collapse of AMOC would completely change the climate of much of Europe. For example, the temperature in Britain could, counterintuitively, fall by ten to fifteen degrees, having a huge impact on agriculture, housing, infrastructure and making conditions practically unlivable.
Hurricanes
More immediately, the effect of what American Meteorological Society has described as “absolutely crazy” temperatures in the Atlantic is the increase in the number and severity of hurricanes. Last year, the hurricane season started in July with Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean – the season does not usually start until September.
Hurricane Helene in the southern US killed over 160 people and caused devastation in multiple states. Experts have commented that due to climate change, Helene caused significantly more damage due to flooding, whereas wind damage was previously the most serious effect of hurricanes. Climate change is leading to significantly more water in the atmosphere, due in part to the increase in ocean temperatures.
Climate change is undeniable, with natural disasters, agricultural insecurity and migration an everyday reality. Apart from the usual suspects, namely right-wing, truth-denying outliers such as Trump, climate denial is no longer possible, which means that ‘the world must surely come together at last to solve the problem’, or so you would think. Unfortunately capitalism still reigns and for the ruling class it is impossible to put the needs of the planet and the majority of its people before corporate profits. Those who cynically denied climate change to avoid losing profits have switched to a new tactic – distract and confuse.
Profit rules the world
Spain, for example, has become a world leader in renewable energy, with improved technology and increased capacity for both solar and wind. This means that energy prices have become incredibly low – so low that economists are now arguing that it is harmful for investment in the sector.
Clean energy projects are jeopardised all over the world on the basis of profitability. In another example of the insanity of modern capitalism, China is now producing a surplus of electric cars which have flooded the domestic market to the extent that prices are dropping to unsustainable (in terms of profit) levels. It has been forced to ramp up foreign exports of its electric cars in order to maintain profitability – even as country after country puts up protectionist barriers to prevent China flooding their respective markets.
So-called economic arguments against climate change mitigation proliferate. A key culprit is the rise of the far right, but even supposedly centrist governments ignore the glaringly obvious – we cannot afford not to stop the climate crisis. The UK’s Labour government has rowed back on most of their green spending promises due to their self-imposed fiscal rules. Meanwhile, the state’s servility to capital means that austerity, including reducing spending on green projects, is preferred to taxing the richest companies and individuals.
For big business, the responsibility for environmental damage is passed onto the state as external to the profit-making activity. This is the effect of the pollution paradox, where the dirtiest industries have the most incentive to lobby against environmental safeguards and therefore spend the most and have the largest influence. The largest and most polluting companies are using the cover of this chaotic era to roll back on their previous feeble attempts at greenwashing. BP has reduced its spending on renewables under pressure from shareholders. Fossil fuels are just more profitable.
War
Conflict rather than climate dominates the headlines, but war is more than just another convenient distraction for those profiting from fossil fuels. Military activities are almost universally exempt from laws to protect the environment, indeed in some cases they benefit from them. Licences to extract minerals are supposed to favour those needed for green technology but a large proportion actually end up in military equipment such as air defence and laser guidance systems.
The climate crisis is a threat multiplier for war and there is a vicious circle where war in turn causes an increase in carbon emissions. It is estimated that militaries contribute 5.5% of all global carbon. In a state of war, emissions may be increased by damage to energy infrastructure, deforestation, population displacement and a breakdown in governance among other factors. In the aftermath of war, reconstruction uses large quantities of resources, particularly in the carbon-intensive production of cement. Current wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine will further exacerbate the problem.
The war in Ukraine had knock-on effects on energy policy throughout Europe due to the reliance on Russian gas. This has been used as an excuse to explore more gas in the North Sea and for some countries to increase their use of coal. The breakdown of the so-called ‘rules-based’ order and widespread flouting of human rights are causing a desperate plight for millions of climate refugees.
In this era of war and chaos, climate change has been pushed further down the list of priorities by a ruling class concerned above all by the short-term interests of profit and national competition. Capitalism has become nothing short of an existential threat for humanity. While the threat of war seems more immediately urgent, something like the collapse of AMOC would cause geopolitical chaos on an unimaginable scale. As temperatures in some places fall, in other parts of the world they will rise to unsurvivable levels. This would cause massive migration from Africa to Europe, with the political effects that we are already beginning to see, as the far right weaponise migration to gain power across Europe.
Borders shifting
As agricultural systems collapse due to water stress and temperature changes, and regions of the world become uninhabitable, it becomes more likely that there will be wars caused directly by the scarcity of resources due to climate change. Elsewhere, effects of climate change can affect the position of national borders, for example in the Alps the border between Italy and Switzerland is defined by glaciers which are changing as they melt. Fortunately this is unlikely to lead to an immediate conflict between Italy and Switzerland, who look likely to solve this problem amicably, but in this world of imperialism and national conflict, the threat of border disputes will be ramped up.
Many islands in Indonesia and other parts of the Pacific could disappear completely due to sea level rises causing nations to have no territory. This will, in turn, only further ramp up the refugee crisis. Imperialism brings not only war but also colonisation. Throughout history, colonising powers have caused as much damage to the natural environment as to the indigenous people of the countries they exploit. Even after the end of the era of direct colonialism, the world is dominated by imperialist powers which super-exploit the rest of the world.
Huge international capitalist interests destroy critical environments for the production of cash crops such as palm oil and soya (which is mainly used as cattle feed and contributes to the huge effect on the environment of global meat production). Soya is particularly unsustainable as its production causes depletion and erosion of soil, leading to a need for even more land, further evidence of short-term thinking under capitalism. Even the production of biofuels, marketed as a way out of fossil fuel reliance, is causing land grabs at the expense of indigenous populations and sensitive ecosystems.
In Brazil, which will this year host the UN’s COP30 climate conference, a new road-building programme is underway. Cutting through the heart of the Amazon, two new roads could prove to be the final straw for this delicate region. One of the roads is to allow access to the city of Belém for the COP meeting itself, another, linking the cities of Manaus and Porto Velho, has recently been approved, with reduced environmental protections, after many years of stalling. These roads will open new areas of the rainforest to the danger of land grabs, illegal side roads and ultimately deforestation. This could play out with devastating consequences if another right-wing leader such as Bolsonaro were to take power in the country.
The previous era of neoliberal globalisation saw a brief window of international cooperation. The disintegration of this old world order will make it increasingly difficult to mitigate climate change, which can only be done on a global scale. At present, mitigating climate change requires that wealthy countries support underdeveloped nations toward a just transition. In fact G20 countries invested billions in overseas fossil fuel developments, many of which are in the developing world.
In April this year, the head of the UN climate agency warned that we have two years to save the world. This is already being ignored. Just 57 companies are responsible for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions since 2016 and these huge corporations have the power to take governments to court to protect their profits.
International socialist planning
We know we can’t rely on the bosses, and this is why it is the working class that has a vital role in breaking the impasse. Our demand must be for governments to invest in huge numbers of climate jobs, benefitting the working class twice over with plentiful, well-paid jobs and slowing down the journey to climate chaos. The trade unions, as mass organisations of the working class, have a key role to play in this struggle.
Unfortunately some, like the GMB and Unite, have taken unhelpful positions calling for increased investment in fossil fuels in the hopes of protecting jobs instead of calling for re-skilling of workers for more sustainable industries. But the reality is that the climate crisis itself increasingly forces workers into harsher working conditions and climate disasters displace working-class people. The best way to defend workers’ interests is not to defend fossil fuels but to fight the climate criminals.
Nationalisation of energy production and distribution systems, as well as water, transport and agriculture should be a key demand. We see time and again that corporations and shareholders cannot be trusted to manage these industries in the best interests of the planet – let alone workers themselves, who suffer a cost of living crisis while the billionaires rake in record profits. Ultimately what is needed is a planned economy under workers’ democratic control.
The crisis is real, it is existential and it is urgent. We must not be persuaded by the capitalist lie that it is the responsibility of individuals to solve the problem through our own actions, we should all do what we can, but recognise that it will not be enough, we must have system-wide change. We have also seen that there is no amount of pressure that can persuade governments and businesses to take the sort of action necessary. We have seen enormous peaceful protests, and brave direct action by small groups of activists. Protesters are more likely to be locked up than listened to, in order to keep the profit machine running. Sentences for climate protests are more serious than for possession of child pornography.
The whole capitalist system, with its inherent imperialism and militarism, is locked into a death spiral of climate crisis, war and social chaos. It will take a revolution to save the planet.
