At the time of writing, an all-out war in the Middle East has been avoided – for now.
By Paul Gerrard
In dizzying succession, the month of June has seen preparations for international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear capability; Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran’s nuclear, military and political infrastructure, supported and applauded by the US; the US entry into the war with a supposedly ‘one-and-done’ attack on Iran’s underground nuclear facility; retaliation by Iran, including a non-fatal attack on a US base in Qatar; and the announcement of a ceasefire, much trumpeted by the US President but showing its instability within hours.
Israel, remorselessly pursuing a genocidal war on Gaza for nearly two years. It has relied on the intelligence, superior weaponry and complicity of the US, to assault and degrade Iran’s proxy allies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ was further weakened by the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, enabling Israel to re-occupy parts of the Golan Heights. Emboldened by these successes, and the re-election of Trump in the US, Netanyahu saw an opportunity
to finally put a stop to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and, if possible, bring about regime change in Iran.
Netanyahu-Trump alliance
The US has given unstinting support to Israel over Gaza, up to and including the plan to remove and re-settle the entire population to make way for a beach front Gaza-a-Lago while the northern hinterland is re-developed by settlers from the West Bank. The US has also connived to exclude humanitarian agencies from food distribution and, through the ludicrously mis-named Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, to drive starving Gazans to traverse active fire zones in search of food, which has already resulted in over 500 deaths at the time of writing.
The recent flotilla and international march to Gaza express the worldwide revulsion at Israel’s actions and highlight the impotence of the international institutions, capitalist governments and courts to stop the genocide and hold Israel to account. It’s only the organised working class such as the Marseilles dockers and Belgian rail workers that can bring a stop to the arms deliveries fuelling Netanyahu’s rampage.
Given the degree of US complicity in Israel’s plans, Netanyahu must have believed there was no limit to what could be achieved. Trump – the ‘peacemaker’ – even authorised the use of twelve so-called ‘bunker-buster’ bombs in an attempt to pummel through rock to destroy Iran’s Fordow facility. Trump immediately declared the plant obliterated but this is far from certain, as are the whereabouts of the uranium stocks removed from the site prior to the attack.
Nevertheless Iran, drained by years of sanctions, is now also weakened militarily as a result of the pounding by the Israeli air force and the depletion of its missile stock. Its usual allies, Russia and China, while making disapproving noises about the brazen US intervention, have little to offer it.
Regime change?
Trump and Netanyahu are united in the belief that ‘Iran cannot have the bomb’. Of course Israel’s nuclear capability, which, like Iran’s, is shrouded in secrecy, is never questioned. But while Netanyahu might want to also bring down the ayatollahs, Starmer, Macron, Merz and the international capitalist class fear what a collapse of the Iranian regime would bring about.
Despite ordinary Iranians’ hatred of the regime, the limited support it maintains in society will, if anything, have been consolidated in the face of Israel’s assaults. A fractured government, or the threatened assassination of ‘Supreme Leader’ Khamenei, could result in a military take-over, possibly an even more hard-line administration than before. Nor have the capitalists forgotten the power of
the movement on the streets for ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ two years ago.
Netanyahu’s hubris, a trait he shares with Trump, will backfire on him. For 20 months, his regime has declared that the murderous attacks on Gaza were bringing Israel close to full victory. But time will tell that this is far from the truth. Netanyahu and Trump’s bloody onslaught is preparing the ground for new generations of further resistance to Israeli aggression and US imperialism, in the region and globally.
Opposition to these wars will continue to grow, including within Israeli society, which has already seen outbreaks of mass opposition to the government’s policy in wartime.
No more ‘forever wars’?
In the US, the military intervention proved troublesome for Trump as well – exposing the cracks in the foundations of the international populist right between the pro-intervention hawks and those looking toward isolationism. This led to the absurd spectacle of far-right talk show host Tucker Carlson grilling Republican politician Ted Cruz on US television over his pro-war politics.
In Britain too, Farage welcomed the bombing of Iran – despite its massive unpopularity among working people. But figures like Carlson are no more allies of the anti-war movement and working class than Farage, Cruz and co – as demonstrated by his vicious anti-China and racist rhetoric in recent years. The only group in society with a consistent interest against all war and imperialism is the international working class.
Build mass struggle against war and imperialism
There is no solution to this seemingly endless bloodbath on the basis of military campaigns conducted by any imperialist power or any reactionary regime in the Middle East. The only road forward is one of mass working class struggle against Israeli capitalism and US imperialism, and against the capitalist regimes which exploit and repress workers, women, and oppressed nationalities and minorities throughout the region.
Working-class organisations must come together in struggle across borders and communities to fight for a shared future of freedom from occupation and imperialism, full democratic and national rights, and public democratic ownership and control over wealth and resources. The twelve ‘bunker-buster’ bombs between them cost $6 billion – what could be achieved without such senseless expenditure on means of destruction?
We urgently need socialist change, in the interests of all the peoples of the Middle East, as part of a struggle for a socialist world.
