Recent headlines have been dominated by the growth of Farage’s Reform UK in Wales. What does this represent?
By Georgia Wilkinson and Tom Costello
Since devolution in the late 1990s, the country has continuously been run by Welsh Labour. Even in times of UK Labour’s deep unpopularity, its Welsh counterpart was able to maintain a certain base by posing to their left, professing to oppose privatisation and austerity.
Recent events have totally blown this illusion apart. Welsh Labour has proven itself totally unwilling to resist the anti-working class agenda of the Starmer government.
When the steelworks at Port Talbot, Newport and Llanelli faced the threat of the closure, rather than stepping in to force the plant’s nationalisation to protect jobs, the devolved government simply sat back and shrugged their shoulders as jobs were slashed.
Predictably, today fewer than two-thirds of 2024 Labour voters say they would back the party in a Senedd election. In the recent by-election in Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera, Labour dropped its vote by 30% to just 12.7% of the overall vote, placing them behind Reform who took 13.3%.
Deprivation has for a long time been significantly higher in Wales compared to the UK average. The unemployment rate in Wales is 5.6%, which is higher than the UK rate of 4.4%. More than one in five people in Wales (23% of the population) currently live in poverty, which is the highest level of all UK nations.
The main feature of politics in Wales (as is the case in England and Scotland) is total disillusionment with the establishment parties. This has been compounded further by the numerous corruption scandals hitting the Senedd (Welsh parliament).
There is a huge mood for punishing the establishment parties. But in the absence of a fighting left-wing political alternative, the ground is being laid for the continued growth of Reform. A recent YouGov poll (December 2024) already placed Labour and Reform, alongside Plaid Cymru as the three leading parties in Wales.
However, as of now, the main beneficiary of Welsh Labour’s collapse has been Plaid Cymru – the Welsh nationalist party. This ultimately reflects the desire among many working-class people and youth in Wales for a progressive and anti-racist political alternative. This also has found expression in the question of national self-determination. One recent poll conducted by Yes Cymru found that 41% of respondents would vote ‘yes’ to independence, were a referendum held today.
However, despite putting forward some progressive policies, Plaid is not the alternative which is currently needed. Part of their appeal for Welsh independence is the ‘opportunities’ it would supposedly create for big business. Despite their progressive language, their vision is still rooted in capitalism, rather than in the fight for a socialist Wales.
What is needed to really fend off the threat of Reform is a new left-wing party, rooted in the struggles of working-class people. One which fights for a programme which speaks to workers’ real interests on both sides of the border. This means fighting for the nationalisation of Welsh industry and natural resources, putting them to use for ordinary people rather than the profiteers, while upholding the right to self-determination for the Welsh people.
