By Jack Yarlett and Andy Moxley
A year and five months on from the beginning of the Israeli invasion of Gaza following the 7 October attack, the fighting has been brought to an end, at least for now, by a ceasefire agreement. At the time of writing it remains to be seen how long the ceasefire will hold. The exact death toll may never be exactly calculated, but potentially hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been killed over the course of the Israeli state’s genocidal onslaught.
While the news of a ceasefire has been greeted with scenes of celebration in Gaza, it does not mark the end of the suffering for the Palestinians, nor to the end of the rising death toll. 90% of the Gazan population has been displaced, around a million of whom are going through the winter months without proper shelter. All hospitals in the Gaza Strip have been either heavily damaged or put out of use completely by Israeli bombing. Meanwhile, crucial medical aid has been blocked. The supply of water and electricity was blocked by Israel early in the war, and at any rate, much of the necessary infrastructure has since then been destroyed.
The result is that while the direct massacres by the IDF will end for now, innocent people, especially children, will continue to die from causes linked to cold, hunger, sickness, and lack of safe housing and medical care for a long time to come. What was already one of the world’s poorest regions before the invasion has become the scene of complete devastation.
For all of the destruction and death it has inflicted on Gaza, the Israeli regime has not come close to the stated objectives of its invasion, namely the dismantling of Hamas and the rescue of the hostages taken on 7 October. Instead, despite its overwhelming advantage in numbers, technology, and firepower as well as uncontested control of the skies above the Gaza Strip, it has spent over a year locked in a bitter quagmire in an area a third the size of London.
Hamas remains very much intact. Any losses they have suffered have been compensated by a steady supply of thousands of recruits generated by the outrage at the Israeli state’s genocidal acts. Far from returning the hostages, the Israeli Army’s indiscriminate attacks have killed dozens of the same Israelis they were ostensibly supposed to be ‘rescuing’.
Political impact of the war
Since 7 October, around a thousand Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza and Lebanon and around 10,000 injured. There have also been reports of suicides and desertions among soldiers and reservists. The Israeli economy has taken massive blows, with internal displacement, many Israeli workers being called up into the army, companies pulling out their investments due to security concerns, tens of thousands of Israelis emigrating as a result of the war, and massive slowdowns in tourism and shipping. All of this has left Israeli capitalism facing a deep crisis.
By far the biggest damage to the Israeli state has been political, however. The genocidal war on Gaza has been met with waves of protests across the world that are still ongoing despite the announcement of the ceasefire. There has been a fundamental shift in the perception of Israel among millions around the world, especially among young people. This has had ramifications for some of Israel’s key supporters.
In the US, the Democrats’ loss to Trump was linked directly to being abandoned by large numbers of younger voters, and especially Arab Americans, over their support for the massacre in Gaza. The re-election of Jeremy Corbyn, along with four other so-called ‘Gaza independents’ in the general election, largely over the issue of the war in Gaza, poses the potential for the beginning of a new left party in Britain. Other capitalist governments in Ireland, Spain, and Norway have taken the largely symbolic step of recognising the state of Palestine as a concession to the mass, international solidarity movement.
Nonetheless, the Israeli regime is still in a position of relative strength as the ceasefire takes hold. Although there have been protests against the war within Israel itself, often revolving around a demand for an “all-for-all” prisoner exchange to ensure the return of Israeli hostages, these take place within the context of strong popular support for the war among the Israeli population. The greatest danger to Netanyahu’s position in the short term is whether he can hold together his coalition with the far-right in his cabinet, who are opposed to any halting of the war.
Will the ceasefire last?
The ceasefire deal itself is extremely precarious. This was underlined by the fact that Israel continued its bombing campaign in the days between the announcement of the ceasefire and its actual adoption on Sunday 19 January. Even that morning, it was delayed by several hours by Netanyahu with last minute demands, with those few hours estimated to have cost 19 more Palestinian lives and with dozens more injured. Even as the ceasefire was implemented, Netanyahu underlined that Israel has the ‘right’ to end the ceasefire and restart the war whenever it so chooses, backed by US imperialism.
This possibility is implicit in the ceasefire deal itself which comes in three ‘phases’. The first phase includes the exchange of hostages and prisoners, some limited withdrawal of Israeli troops, as well as easing the brutal blocking of humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. The second and third phases are supposed to be developed during negotiations. But reports indicate things like the release of all hostages in Gaza, the total withdrawal of Israel from most of the strip, and a permanent ceasefire.
Unfortunately, it is likely that the ceasefire will never move far beyond ‘phase one’. The terms of the deal are essentially the same ones that have been on offer since spring of last year, which had been repeatedly rejected by Netanyahu and his allies. They have been accepted now for a number of reasons.
While Israel’s ‘Cabinet of Death’ has not achieved its maximalist declared war aims by any means, it has inflicted significant damage on its regional adversaries. Netanyahu also reportedly came under major pressure from the incoming Trump administration, which came into office declaring the ceasefire a major personal victory. This is despite Trump holding an incredibly hawkish position of support for Israel. Netanyahu also probably hoped to reap some domestic popularity from the return of hostages.
As we publish this, the ceasefire’s fragility is even more evident. On 21 January, IDF forces conducted a brutal raid on a camp in Jenin, in the West Bank, while continuing to operate within Gaza. Trump, who reportedly promised to fully support a redeclaration of war by the Israeli state, told reporters on his first day in office that he was “not confident” the ceasefire would hold.
‘Axis of Resistance’
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria could make it significantly harder for Iran to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon – which was already weakened by Israeli state aggression – with weapons and equipment. This is a significant blow to the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ in the region, which stands in a weaker position than it did in the period before 7 October 2023.
We cannot pin our hopes on the ‘Axis of Resistance’ to win an end to the oppression of the Palestinians. Peace and liberation cannot be won through an escalating war in the Middle East between Israel and the rectionary capitalist regime of Iran and its allies. Such a conflict could only widen the scope of death and destruction and risk an all-out confrontation involving the US and its allies against other powers such as China (itself a large supplier of military equipment, such as drones, to Israel) Regardless of whether the ceasefire holds, the root of the most recent slaughter cannot be found in the events of the last 15 months. Ultimately this can only ever mean a temporary pause, with no fundamental solution to the volatile situation in the region.
The genocidal war on Gaza itself has spilled over into invasions, bombings, assassinations and provocations throughout the region – from land grabs in the Golan Heights to air and missile attacks on Yemen and Iran. The Israeli capitalist regime relies on the brutal occupation and national oppression of the Palestinian masses for its very existence. A system that relies on such a bloody arrangement to ensure its own existence can never bring peace.
This crisis has taken place in the global context of a period of increased war, militarism, and inter-imperialist conflict. The fight for lasting peace and liberation for the oppressed Palestinian people cannot be won without a broader struggle against the capitalist governments who are driving toward a wider global conflict.
One crucial step toward this in Britain would be forming a new left party to provide a genuine opposition to Keir Starmer’s right-wing Labour government and the occupation of Palestine. It would be able to connect anti-war demands to the wider needs of the working class, like calling for the nationalisation of the arms industry so that its resources and workforce can be used for social good in areas like green technology, and for military spending to be diverted to funding education and the NHS.
Ending the national oppression of the Palestinian people is fundamental to ending war and bloodshed in the region. This can only be achieved as part of the struggle for socialist transformation across the Middle East to guarantee lasting peace, the rebuilding of Gaza, and defend the national rights of all groups.
