By Jack Yarlett
As the war between Russia and Ukraine grinds on into its third winter since the invasion, the number of people killed or injured has reportedly reached one million. It speaks to the violent era of inter-imperialist conflict that we now live in that even a conflict on this scale has come to be overshadowed by Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, its ground invasion of Lebanon, and the threat of an even wider war involving Iran.
Nonetheless, these conflicts form part of the same bigger picture. The Russia-Ukraine war continues to be a crucial front in the growing confrontation between US-led Western and Chinese-led rival imperialist blocs. It continues to have repercussions for the working class worldwide, not just in Ukraine itself.
It is clear that, in contrast to the propagandistic reporting in the Western capitalist media, the war is going badly for Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are locked in a war of attrition in which they cannot match Russia’s ability to replace casualties and destroyed equipment. A string of strategic blunders has worsened the situation, the first being the failed summer counter-offensive last year, and more recently the counter-invasion of the Kursk region in Russia.
Counter-invasion
Zelensky and other pro-Ukrainian sources claim the incursion into Kursk aimed to draw Russian strength away from the Donbas region and overstretch Russian forces. It was also an attempt to boost morale – to demonstrate that the badly mauled Ukrainian army is still able to take the fight to Russia. In addition, it was part of an attempt to draw NATO governments more decisively into the war, which is ultimately the only way to fundamentally shift the balance in its favour. In particular, they are pushing to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets in Russia – something which they have held back on so far, despite support from our Labour government.
However, this offensive has not thus far achieved any of these objectives. It leaves Ukraine with another front to fight on, in which it is steadily losing ground, and speaks to Ukraine’s dangerous position. Zelenksy has outlined
Ukraine’s “victory plan” and presented it to his Western backers. But more and more people can now see the reality that there is scant chance of Ukraine achieving his stated goals of a total victory and a restoration of its 1991 borders.
Harris v. Trump
How will the rest of this conflict pan out? The recent US election will be one factor. In the media, Harris and Trump were presented as being diametrically opposed on the issue of support for Ukraine. Harris had pledged to continue to give Ukraine the US full support, while ‘MAGA’ Republicans have generally been critical of it, Trump recently criticising Zelensky for “letting the war start” and not seeking a deal with Moscow.
Trump will likely attempt to broker a deal, potentially threatening to withdraw US support from Ukraine as part of pushing the Zelensky regime into concessions. The impact on Ukrainian morale from this alone could hasten the path towards negotiations. Under the Democrats, Ukraine had not been provided with enough aid and equipment to replace the losses they suffered during last summer’s failed counter-offensive, and they have – at the time of writing – not been granted the use of long range missiles in Russia itself.
There is probably more agreement between Trump and the Democrats on the issue of Ukraine than either would admit. Ultimately, both are driven by the interests of US imperialism. For all of his talk, Trump stepped in to allow ‘hawk’ Republicans to vote with the Democrats on the massive aid package to Ukraine during the summer. His populist fake ‘anti-war’ rhetoric is not a genuine break from the interests of American imperialism. In fact, the opposition of many Republicans to support for Ukraine is based on the idea that it is a distraction from the greater threat of a looming conflict with China. US imperialism is also concerned with its preparedness for a further escalation of the conflict at this time – especially not while the threat of an outright war with Iran also looms in the Middle East.
What future for Ukraine?
However the war in Ukraine ends, it will not mean the end of the suffering of the Ukrainian working class. Any peace deal will be only temporary. Ukraine has been devastated, vital infrastructure is in ruins, especially in the East where the Donbas frontline has reduced entire towns and cities to rubble.
Already suffering from a declining and aging population before the war, over six million people have left Ukraine for refuge in Europe since the war began, many will have little incentive to return. The remaining surviving Ukrainian working class will include tens of thousands of people with disabilities caused by war injuries. Any attempts at post-war recovery and reconstruction will be hampered by the colossal debts Ukraine will owe to its western ‘allies’.
All of this could still be just a prelude to a wider global conflict between the US-led west against China and its allies, with any one of a number of different theatres providing the next flashpoint: Israel and Iran, Taiwan, the Korean peninsula, or Sub-Saharan Africa. The inter imperialist struggle to dominate global markets and resources threatens to plunge the world into wars that have nothing to do with democracy, freedom or the interests of the working class in any country but which will bring death, displacement and suffering to millions – unless the working class around the world can organise mass movements to stop wars and to bring down the capitalists who start and profit from them.
