The Conservative Party is licking its wounds after its disastrous showing at the General Election. Never in their history have the Tories received such a low share of the vote, or number of MPs. We can also say goodbye to some of the most hated figures of the lot, including Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg, plus 44 Tory Ministers and 12 Tory frontbenchers.
From its outset, with the ex-Prime Minister’s rain-soaked announcement, through to the backlash over the D-Day anniversary and onto the farcical comments about Sky TV, Sunak’s campaign was an absolute shambles. It was strewn with error and appalling judgement, illustrating in vivid detail the state of the Tories. Regardless of when Sunak called the election, his party’s fortunes would not have fundamentally changed. They were done for in any case.
Above all, this election saw an overwhelming rejection of the despised Tory government. Figures from polling agency Savanta, which found that 75% of those who voted Labour did so to get rid of the Tories, sum up these results. After a disastrous stint in office, from Brexit chaos to the pandemic disaster, the corruption scandals that brought down Boris Johnson, to the catastrophe of ‘Trussonomics’, the Conservative Party have now been decisively punished. This was above all the anti-Tory election.
In the hours following the election, a procession of disgruntled Tories offered reflections on their demise. Sunak’s own words, “to the country, I would like to say first and foremost, I am sorry” will have garnered little sympathy after years of economic turmoil, declining living standards and stagnant pay, attacks on migrants, trans youth and other oppressed sections of society.
But now the Tories are faced with a dilemma over the future direction of their party, with an inevitable leadership contest, and the further opening up of divisions in the party. Already, ex-Tory minister Sir Robert Buckland has said it would be a “disastrous mistake” for the party to lurch to the right. Meanwhile, Priti Patel and Kemi Badenoch have made no hesitation in beating the drum over immigration, attacks on trans people and pursuing Trussonomics once again.
Amid all of this, a strengthened Reform UK will inevitably colour discussions. Farage has said he doesn’t care about the Tories, although his chumminess with figures on the Tory right says otherwise. In a poll following the election, half of Tory members consulted favoured a merger with Reform! The future of the different Tory factions is far from certain: mergers, splits and larger implosions are all on the cards.
Starmer will not have an easy ride
For Starmer and his team, the results have been portrayed as a triumph, and a vindication of the party’s rightward turn. But Starmer’s win is extremely shallow. Labour’s share of the vote actually went down from the beginning of the campaign, with a commanding lead of 40% narrowing down to 33.7% in the election itself. Rather than a Labour victory, this election should mainly be seen as a loss for the Tories.
Labour’s stale and cautious election campaign failed to inspire voters who were looking for a set of policies to address the serious problems faced by working class people. So it is no surprise to see Starmer entering Downing Street with an approval rating of only 44%, lower than the ill-fated Boris Johnson upon winning the last General Election. His government will rest on a foundation of massive instability, and the triumphalism currently emanating from Labour HQ can turn into its opposite very quickly.
Labour has pledged to stick to the same ‘fiscal rules’ set by the Tories – rules which mean following the wishes of the bosses and billionaires. Starmer risks provoking massive opposition if his government passes the sorts of cuts necessary to stick to such rules. Meanwhile the UK economy, while technically out of recession, is laden with stagnant growth tied together with a cost of living squeeze. A Starmer government faces a minefield from the outset.
While the vote to get the Tories out was significant, the fragmentation of the right-wing vote played just as crucial a role in Starmer’s victory. The low turnout of 60% shows the apathy of big sections of workers, who see that little is on offer from any of the mainstream political parties. Headlines after the election confirmed this further, pointing out that the two main parties took a mere 58% of the vote, their lowest combined share ever.
Despite five years of work purging the left, and cosying up to big business in the name of ‘electability’, Labour received its lowest share of the vote this century! In fact, Labour received a total vote lower than Jeremy Corbyn’s left-led Labour Party did in 2017 or 2019 in a striking example of how undemocratic Britain’s outdated voting system is, as well as the complete inability of Starmer’s Labour to inspire any amount of enthusiasm among the working class. The sickening spectacle of Blairites stuffed into the new cabinet bragging about a ‘changed Labour Party’ will all come back to haunt them.
Reform UK and the right-wing threat
Given the apathy and discontent towards the two choices on offer, it is unfortunately not all that surprising that the right-populist Reform UK performed so strongly, presenting itself as an alternative to the main parties with a programme that scapegoats refugees for the crisis of this system.
Nigel Farage and his followers ran a high-profile campaign, building big rallies as crowds came to hear him speak, like a twisted mirror image of the insurgent Jeremy Corbyn campaigns of the 2010s. Although their results are modest, Farage will see this as a victory for his ideas, which have now established a firm foothold, gaining 14.3% of the total vote. They gained significant support in constituencies in all areas, and also attracted a layer of young men. The attraction of a section of young men and boys to far-right ideas has been an ongoing and alarming trend, represented in the popularity of Andrew Tate and similar ‘manosphere’ figures. One recent poll found that Reform, among 16/17 year old boys, are neck and neck with Labour in terms of support, each at 35%.
Clearly, right populism is now a key factor in British politics. Reform UK will form part of a right-wing bloc in Parliament, looking to pose as the main opposition under Starmer, and possibly joined by sections of the Tory right. The rise of the right in Britain echoes a similar, dangerous trend taking place across Europe as reactionary figures exploit the crisis of this system to whip up hatred of migrants and other oppressed peo- ple (see more on pages 8-9).
The growth of Reform will encourage other far- right groups to see themselves as Farage’s shock troops, posing further danger to immigrants, queer people and organised workers. And a failed Labour government will only nourish the far-right further.
It is becoming ever more urgent that we organise a serious opposition to the far right in Britain. It must be built on the basis of a fighting approach that can challenge these forces in the streets, in schools, the workplace, and all other places where they try to mobilise, as well as put forward a political alternative and programme that challenges the vile ideas put forward by right-wing influencers and politicians.
A glimpse of the importance of building such a challenge can be seen already. Where there were strong independent challenges to the Tories and Labour in the elections, the Reform vote went down. A new party with a clear programme in the interests of working-class people would have the ability to cut across the toxic ideas of the reactionary right.
Scotland
The collapse of the SNP in Scotland is another of the many political earthquakes of this election. The SNP has been humiliated, losing 39 of its Westminster seats, amounting to a loss of 80% on their previous total. Many of its voters stayed at home to register their disillusionment with the series of scandals hitting it at Holyrood, as well as its inability to resist Westminster over independence and the undemocratically-blocked Gender Recognition Reform Bill.
The SNP has imploded over the last year. The corruption scandal around the party leadership, including ex-party leader Nicola Sturgeon and her husband has created a feeling of distrust in the political establishment. For many who saw the SNP as different to the Westminster parties, there is a huge sense of betrayal. At the same time, its leadership has tacked right.
The swing to Labour in this election represented a burning desire to kick out the Tories. Voting Labour was seen as the best and sometimes the only way to show them the door. But as ever, the ruling class has drawn the wrong conclusion from this result: that it is a vote against independence.
A resurgent movement for independence, along with other social explosions, is far from ruled out as dissatisfaction grows against Labour and Westminster. But if a new movement is to succeed where the SNP failed, it must have strong roots in mass struggle.
On this basis it would be possible to stand up to the courts and the British state, and fight for a socialist, independent Scotland, as part of a free and voluntary socialist federation with Wales, England and Ireland.
Wales
The Tories have faced a complete wipeout in Wales, losing all of their seats. Labour emerged with 27 of the 32 Welsh seats, but these were won despite themselves. Welsh Labour has faced turmoil of its own following plummeting approval ratings for former Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford, who was replaced at the end of last year. For Welsh workers, this experience will not have been forgotten.
Plaid Cymru saw a slight uptick in their share of the vote, winning four MPs, and the Liberal Democrats won one. Like many other parts of the UK, the vote in Wales was above all an anti-Tory one. Labour’s seemingly strong results are no guarantee of stability.
Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein held all 7 of their seats. Meanwhile the Unionist vote was split between the Democratic Unionist Party (5), Ulster Unionist Party (1), and Traditional Unionist Voice (1). One Independent Unionist took a seat from the Alliance Party, but the biggest story came out of North Antrim where Ian Paisley Jr, the son of former DUP leader Ian Paisley, narrowly lost to the hardline TUV, ending the family’s reign over the seat they have held since 1970.
The tensions between the TUV and DUP reflect similar tensions to those between TUV-allies Reform UK and the Conservative Party in Britain, overlaid with the added complications of sectarianism. The election cements Sinn Fein as the largest party and will inflame Unionist anxieties. But the poor results for Sinn Fein in the South of Ireland in June’s council elections highlight that this can change. In the recent period, they have tacked rightward, bending to the growing racist right in Ireland and looking to reassure big business of their reliability in the event of being elected to government in the South.
Where does all this leave the left?
The victory for Corbyn, standing against the party he once led, was a crucial victory for socialists and the left. It highlighted the ongoing popularity of Left ideas, and showed that it is possible to stand against the Labour Party machine and win! In doing so, he was joined by several other pro-Palestine independents who were able to win important victories. The defeat for Jonathan Ashworth in Leicester, who had been gearing up to take over as Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions was very significant.
Other independent successes in Blackburn, Dewsbury/ Batley and Birmingham, and strong campaigns against a host of other Labour MPs, completely expose the idea put forward by the Labour leadership that pro-war, pro-establishment politics are necessary to win. In fact, the election of these candidates represents the enduring strength of the Palestine solidarity movement against politicians who stand on the side of British imperialism and fail to oppose the genocidal onslaught in Gaza.
Many people also voted for the Greens, who won four seats – their best ever result. Although the Greens’ limited programme and lack of fighting, struggle-based approach don’t truly point towards a working-class challenge against the political establishment, the vote nonetheless reflects the desire to tax the rich, invest in public services and fight the looming threat of climate catastrophe.
The existence of this group of independents and Greens creates an opportunity for a Starmer government to face opposition from the left, and not just the right. It will be crucial for Left and anti-war independent MPs to stand against all attacks against working class people in Britain, as well as serve as a political voice accountable to the movement for solidarity with Palestinians. We call for the independents, with Corbyn in the lead, to coordinate in parliament and outside of parliament to put forward a real alternative to Labour’s pro-rich policies and the racist poison of Reform.
This would include putting forward alternative policies inside parliament, such as demanding to repeal the two child benefit cap, nationalise the steelworks at Port Talbot, shut down asylum seeker detention centres, and calling for action beyond parliament when these proposals are being put to the vote, relying on the strength of our class rather than parliamentary arithmetic. They should also demand the new Green MPs back them up. Those on the left who voted Greens and independent as an alternative to the big parties should call on their MPs to do this.
An organised ‘left bloc’ of MPs could play an important role in cohering the forces necessary to go beyond this disparate grouping and toward a new party. Socialist Alternative calls for the convening of a national conference to discuss establishing a new party. Such a conference could bring together the forces involved in the independent election campaigns, where these were on a left-wing or progressive basis, with trade unionists, campaigners from the anti-war, climate, feminist, anti-racist and other movements, and left- wing political groups.
We would participate in such a party, stressing the need for it to be based on democratic organisation and struggle in workplaces and communities, where the real strength of our class lies, as well as contesting the next local elections. For it to be truly effective, a new party would need to be armed with a socialist programme to take the wealth off the super rich and invest in green public services, transport, decent jobs and homes. These would be the most powerful tool in the fight against the burgeoning far-right.
Trade unions like Unite have promised to ‘hold Labour’s feet to the fire’, but this will need to be fol- lowed up in practice. There can be no pause in work- ers’ struggles, from junior doctors fighting for a pay rise, to steel workers in Port Talbot fighting to save their jobs, and the thousands of workers who will have new pay negotiations coming up this autumn. This will mean fighting to reverse Labour’s walking back on the ‘New Deal for Workers’ and push it further. It will also mean calling for support from, and in turn supporting any left-wing independents who stand on the side of the working class.
It is now essential that we prepare for the next phase of class struggle that will take place under Labour, which is sitting on a volcano of volatility and turmoil, distrust and anger. The movements built over the last year, for an end to the attacks on Gaza, for a fighting Pride movement, of strikes and direct action must continue. They will be joined by further waves of resistance as Labour comes up against the reality of broken Britain.
